Dependence and mean reversion in stock prices: The case of the MENA region

This paper provides empirical evidence on the long memory behavior of the stock markets of Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Turkey. To test for long memory in the returns and volatility, we employ the modified rescaled range statistic R/S proposed by Lo [Lo, A.W., 1991. Long-term memory in stock market prices. Econometrica 59, 1279–1313] and the recently proposed rescaled variance V/S statistic developed by Giraitis et al. [Giraitis, L., Kokoszka, P.S. Leipus, R., Teyssiere, G., 2003. Rescaled variance and related tests for long memory in volatility and levels. J. Econ. 112, 265–294]. Further analysis is conducted by employing the ARFIMA (p, d, q) model to estimate the long memory parameters. Egypt and Morocco show evidence of long memory in the return series, while Jordan and Turkey display negative persistence. For the volatility series, long memory is conclusively demonstrated for all markets. Then, we compare the forecasting performance of ARMA and ARFIMA models and find that the ARFIMA model outperforms in out-of-sample forecasting of the markets. Our results should be useful to regulators, practitioners and derivative market participants, whose success depends on the ability to forecast stock price movements in these markets.     

Innovate to Survive: The Effect of Technology Competition on Corporate Bankruptcy

This paper establishes a strong relation between technology competition and corporate bankruptcy. Using detailed firm‐level patent data, we show that: 1) the capability of firms to innovate predicts future bankruptcies better than the typical measures such as Z‐score and credit rating, 2) technology‐related bankruptcies are less sensitive to the business cycle and industry success, and 3) firms that go bankrupt as a result of technology competition experience larger declines in earnings and stock prices.     

Cost performance of Brazilian soccer clubs: A Bayesian varying efficiency distribution model

This paper analyzes the cost efficiency of Brazilian first league soccer clubs using a Bayesian Varying Efficiency Distribution (VED) model. We confirm that the model fits the data well with all coefficients correctly signed and in line with the theoretical requirements. From the efficiency results, it was clear that the Brazilian soccer league operates at a lower performance in comparison to other international soccer leagues. Factors which contributed to this finding as well as other policy implications are provided.     

A Panel Cointegration Analysis of the Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth: Evidence from the Middle East Region

This paper examines the contribution of tourism industry to the GDP of three selected destinations in the Middle East region: Bahrain, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. We introduce a quadratic functional form and apply the advanced panel cointegration dynamic model with robust estimation to test our hypothesis. Our analysis is based on a comprehensive set of panel data of tourism receipts, education investment, foreign direct investment and fixed capital formation over the period of 1981–2008. The results show a long‐run relationship between tourism growth and GDP. We also show that tourism has a stronger impact on the economy than other related sectors. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

European vs. U.S. airlines: Performance comparison in a dynamic market

This study measures and compares the efficiency and productivity of European and U.S. airlines, over the period from 2001 to 2008. We measure efficiency by estimating a Bayesian distance frontier model subject to regularity constraints. Productivity estimates are also derived parametrically, based on the estimates of the distance frontier model. We estimate both a constrained (i.e. subject to regularity conditions) and an unconstrained model and we show the importance of imposing the monotonicity and curvature conditions on the distance function. The efficiency and productivity results based on the constrained model indicate that European airlines have slightly higher efficiency and productivity growth than U.S. airlines. A comparison based on the type of airlines indicates that low-cost airlines are on average more productive and efficient than full-service airlines. The decomposition of productivity growth and related market discussions are also provided.     

The design of land policy in Israel: Between law and political culture

This article deals with the Israeli land policy in light of a certain judicial decision made by the Israeli High Court of justice (HCJ). A decision known as the “Land decision” (2002). Following the concept of shared mental models I will claim that the ruling of the HCJ at the given point in time expresses societal preferences formed through a process of learning through which society develops a shared mental model of ‘alternative behavior’ that reflects the way in which individuals and groups adapt to solve the social problems they face in various contexts. This shared mental model provides a frame of reference for the actions of political players such as politicians, special interest groups as well as the Supreme Court in shaping the design and implementation of Israel’ land policy. However regarding the Israeli land decision the ability of the Supreme Court to determine policy is limited on the implementation level.     

Corporate transparency, cream-skimming and FDI

We develop a simple information-based model of Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. On the one hand, the relative abundance of “intangible” capital in specialized industries in the source countries, which presumably generates expertise in screening investment projects in the host countries, enhances FDI flows. On the other hand, host-country relative corporate-transparency diminishes the value of this expertise, thereby reducing the flow of FDI. The model also demonstrates that the gains for the host country from FDI [over foreign portfolio investment (FPI)] are reflected in a more efficient size of the stock of domestic capital and its allocation across firms. These gains are shown to depend crucially (and positively) on the degree of competition among FDI investors. We provide also some evidence on the effects of corporate transparency indicators, such as accounting standards, on bilateral FDI flows from a panel of 24 OECD countries over the period of 1981-1998.     

Measuring firm performance: Bayesian estimates with good and bad outputs

Set in the airport industry, this paper measures firm performance using both desirable and bad outputs (i.e. airport delays). We first estimate a model that does not include the bad outputs and then a model that includes bad outputs. The results show important differences in the efficiency and productivity results depending on whether bad outputs are or are not included in the model. The differences reflect the resource cost to society and the potential cost to an airport if such externalities were internalized. Finally, the paper provides measures of shadow prices for the bad output, in our case airport delay, and discusses the results in terms of several interesting trends affecting US airports.     

Capital structure,executive compensation,and investment efficiency

This paper examines how the similarity between the executive compensation leverage ratio and the firm leverage ratio affects the quality of the firm’s investment decisions. A larger leverage gap (i.e., a bigger difference between these two ratios) leads to more investment distortions. Managers with more debt-like compensation components tend to under-invest, whereas managers with larger equity-based compensation engage more in over-investment. Furthermore, investment distortion is likely to increase the equity (debt) value when compensation leverage is lower (higher) than firm leverage. These findings suggest that managers can deviate from an optimal investment policy to increase the value of their portfolio, and that a lower leverage gap can reduce agency costs.